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The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, with both current assessments and short-term expectations weakening. The survey also found rising inflation expectations and a larger share of consumers expecting interest rates to increase.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, from 88.6 in August, as consumers grew more downbeat about current business and labor conditions and the outlook for the next six months. The decline matters because the survey tracks households’ views on conditions that can influence spending, although it does not measure actual retail purchases.
The Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3, reflecting weaker assessments of current business and employment conditions. The share of consumers describing business conditions as good relative to those calling them bad dropped to a net –1.9%, a decline of 3.4 percentage points. The Conference Board said the shift was driven largely by more respondents saying conditions were bad. This was the first time consumers’ appraisals of current business conditions turned negative since September 2024.
The labor market differential—the share saying jobs are plentiful minus the share saying jobs are hard to get—fell 2.5 percentage points to +1.7%. It remained positive, but the measure indicates that the balance of responses about job availability narrowed. The Expectations Index dropped 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly decline. Its three components all weakened: net expectations for business conditions fell to –9.5%, labor market expectations to –14.4%, and household income expectations to +2.5%.
The September survey also recorded higher inflation expectations. Consumers’ average and median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1% and 5.1%, respectively. The share expecting interest rates to rise over the next year increased 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%. Consumers still generally expected stock prices to rise, though optimism about that outlook moderated.
Weaker Outlook Across Households
The decline was broad across measures: consumers reported more negative views of current business conditions, a weaker reading on job availability and less confidence about business and labor conditions over the next six months. That combination offers a snapshot of household sentiment that retailers and other businesses may watch when evaluating the consumer environment. The index itself does not establish that households have cut spending or predict how sales will change.
Income expectations remained in positive territory, but they fell from the prior month, while inflation and interest-rate expectations moved higher. These responses suggest consumers were less upbeat about near-term conditions even as they continued to expect household incomes to rise on balance. The survey does not show how those views will translate into individual decisions about purchases, saving or borrowing.
A Three-Month Slide in Expectations
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index summarizes responses about current conditions and expectations for income, business and labor market conditions over the short term. Its Present Situation Index reflects consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions; its Expectations Index covers their outlook for the next six months. The September results are preliminary and reflect responses collected from September 1 through September 23.
The Expectations Index had declined for two months before September, making the latest fall its third consecutive monthly decline. The Conference Board said the survey period included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The report provides that timing as context; it does not establish that either development caused the change in confidence.
On a six-month moving-average basis, confidence trended downward across all age groups and nearly all income groups, according to the report. Higher-income groups generally remained more optimistic, while households earning $125,000 to $149,000 recorded the largest decline in confidence over that six-month period. The report did not provide a specific decline amount for that group in the source material.
What the Survey Cannot Establish
The preliminary results show what consumers reported during the survey period, but they do not establish why confidence fell or whether households have changed their actual spending. The Conference Board noted that the survey period included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions; the report does not attribute the decline to either factor. The source material also does not specify the size of the September sample or give response-level details.
It remains unclear whether the drop will persist in later readings, how views may change after September 23, or whether lower confidence will affect retail sales, hiring or other economic activity. The index is a measure of sentiment, not a direct record of those outcomes.
Watch the Next Confidence Reading
The next Conference Board confidence release will show whether the September deterioration continued into the following survey period or eased. Readers can also compare later confidence results with measures of actual retail sales and labor market conditions to see whether sentiment shifts are accompanied by changes in economic activity. The September report itself does not provide a forecast for those measures.
Key Questions
How much did consumer confidence fall in September?
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points, from 88.6 in August to 81.9 in September.
Which part of the index declined most?
The Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index declined 5.9 points to 63.6 and had fallen for three consecutive months.
Did consumers expect their incomes to fall?
No. Net household income expectations remained positive at +2.5%, but the measure fell 3.0 percentage points in September.
When was the survey conducted?
The survey period for the preliminary September results ran from September 1 to September 23, 2026.
Does the report show that consumer spending declined?
No. It reports consumers’ confidence and expectations, not actual spending. The source material does not establish whether the September decline changed household purchases.
Source: rss
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